| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · XIV | << 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 22 >>Post Follow-up |
| Mactheriverrat 3,173 posts msg #141836 - Ignore Mactheriverrat |
2/4/2018 12:55:24 PM @pt Just put this trigger code in any filter. I myself the less indicators the better- they are just noise and make people have Analysis paralysis. Its not the Holy Grail but so far its better trigger than anything that I can come up with. There 's will be flaws where its just doesn't pan out- One can make a symlist of past winners and study what if. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Set{cntcmadma1abovecmadma8,count( cma(DMA(8,-5),1) > cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,1)} draw cntcmadma1abovecmadma8 Set{cntcmadma1abovecmadma8b,count( cma(DMA(8,-5),1)< cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,1)} draw cntcmadma1abovecmadma8b /* AxA is number of consecutive days cma(DMA(8,-5),1) above (+)/below(-) previous cma(DMA(8,-5),8) */ set{AAb,days( cma(DMA(8,-5),1) is above cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,250)} set{AAa,days( cma(DMA(8,-5),1) is below cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,250)} set{dmax8, AAa - AAb} and add column dmax8 {dma_x_1over8} do not Draw AxA do not draw dma(8,-5),8) draw cma(DMA(8,-5),1) draw cma(DMA(8,-5),8) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- @ Cheese Good idea ! |
| davesaint86 726 posts msg #141837 - Ignore davesaint86 modified |
2/4/2018 12:55:45 PM pthomas - I assume when you reference the Kevin systems you are talking about the StrataSearch system signals. Time will tell really soon (or maybe it already has) if StrataSearch needs to be optimized or it sees positive divergences forming. I do not have the answer. The filter Mac posted and other indicators/strategies would have got you out with minimal damage. Even IRA Epstein states sell at the Bollinger Band and wait for price to come back down to the MA(18) and when it turns back up buy again. Just looking back at the previous downturns of XIV it looks like XIV recovers fast. However, I agree with you why take the downturn hit if you do not have to. |
| davesaint86 726 posts msg #141839 - Ignore davesaint86 |
2/4/2018 1:25:23 PM Mac - Is this filter working correctly? Wondering why there is a +18 and a -1 returned. |
| Mactheriverrat 3,173 posts msg #141844 - Ignore Mactheriverrat modified |
2/4/2018 2:15:49 PM That code that I posted above is flawed but the boxes below the charts work just fine. It doesn't show the right count like in ERY is off by 2 days- Like I said no filter is perfect . /* AxA is number of consecutive days cma(DMA(8,-5),1) above (+)/below(-) previous cma(DMA(8,-5),8) */ set{AAb,days( cma(DMA(8,-5),1) is above cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,250)} set{AAa,days( cma(DMA(8,-5),1) is below cma(DMA(8,-5),8) ,250)} set{dmax8, AAa - AAb} and add column dmax8 {dma_x_1over8} do not Draw AxA |
| Mactheriverrat 3,173 posts msg #141845 - Ignore Mactheriverrat |
2/4/2018 2:33:59 PM Looking at XIV using the crossover should get one out with minimal damage. One could trade a filter symlist with say just 50 stocks ( say JPM,WFC,BAC) if he could get and get out with minimal damage. |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #141849 - Ignore pthomas215 |
2/4/2018 3:14:31 PM You guys are great...thank you. Davesaint, yes, the stratasearch system. I am intrigued and somewhat obsessed with the concept of it....changing the mix of holding of XIV in accordance with price action and consolidation....brilliant. Just not sure if a few sell signals out of 40 on a 20% plus drop in value is enough to say the XIV mix is optimal when we are not going up up up. I think XIV could see more carnage by March too. |
| karennma 8,057 posts msg #141851 - Ignore karennma |
2/4/2018 3:33:28 PM pthomas215 1,129 posts msg #141834 - Ignore pthomas215 2/4/2018 12:40:05 PM ""it is a bull market so buy more on the dip". this mentality could clear out an account if valuations drop significantly. =============== This is true ... sort of ... I've been "holding" since mid-October and recently lost about 16% of my gains, mainly because when I had a relapse (a daytrading relapse), I bought some speculative crap that I shouldn't have. At least, now I know the "dogs" in my portfolio. I'm gonna stay the course and see what happens ... Time will tell. :>) |
| Mactheriverrat 3,173 posts msg #141853 - Ignore Mactheriverrat |
2/4/2018 4:28:53 PM Simple chart Just waiting for a buy signal  |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #141855 - Ignore pthomas215 |
2/4/2018 4:36:11 PM @ Karen.....i was referring only to holding XIV....a model that doesnt adequately have you exiting positions at times could be risky imo |
| davesaint86 726 posts msg #141857 - Ignore davesaint86 modified |
2/4/2018 5:40:41 PM If you look at XIV what do you see over the last 14 months? I see a 45 degree upturn. How many short-term downturns have there been since that time? Has XIV achieved higher highs and higher lows? What was the average drawdown from peak to bottom for each new breakout? How many days on average did it take to go from peak to bottom? How long on average does it take to get to the previous high? What has changed fundamentally in the overall market? Why didn't Gold go up on Friday if the talking heads on CNBC are talking about inflationary concerns. I vividly remember the 2008 crash. The gloom and talk of doom talk started in 2006 from what I remember. As the Fed raised interest rates more and more bad news gradually starting being announced. As of now I do not see the same scenario yet. My gut tells me the downturn in XIV is just about over and that is going to go to a new high. With that said, that is only a projection by me of what I want the outcome could be. Let's think about people like Harry Dent, Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente. They have been talking about Doom and Gloom forever. One day each of them will be right. Everyday Markewatch prints articles that the sky is falling in the markets at the same time of printing how great things are. It's all noise. What really matters is price at a point in time. Using a indicator like the MA(18) or DMA8 is not perfect and never will be. I do believe it will keep you out of harms way as long as the market is not whipsawing in an all of trades. I just analyze XIV. It looks like it's down 23% from it's high. Back in Aug/Jul the downturn was also around 16 days and the drop from the peak was around 25.9%. In 2016 there as a 36% drop. |
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